Best exchange rates- help

[MotherBear]

Dollar edging up again
Page 1 of 2 9:55AM Tuesday June 12, 2007
By Brian Fallow

The dollar is edging up again, in the wake of the Reserve Bank's intervention yesterday which attempted to drive down the currency.

The New Zealand dollar was trading at around 76.20 US cents yesterday morning and dropped by around a 1.5 cents before starting to stage a recovery last night. After starting today just under 75 US cents, it is now trading at at 75.13.
Analysts are divided on whether the intervention it will work long term. Steve Barrow of investment bank Bear Stearns says New Zealand's interest rates are too attractive and the Reserve Bank will struggle to turn around the strength the dollar has shown in the past few years.

"Any central bank that tries to take on the currency market right now is going to find that it is struggling against a weak US dollar, and that's going to make it particularly hard."

Shock and awe

In a high-risk move, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard has ambushed the money market by intervening to drive the New Zealand dollar lower.

If the aim was shock and awe, it succeeded. The dollar, which at 8am yesterday was trading at US76.19, dropped more than a cent. By 8.30 last night it recovered to US75.1c. Overall the bank's move pushed the currency down 2 per cent.

It is the first time the bank has intervened since the currency was floated in 1985.

More here .

[Dawn]

We spoke to someone at HIFX yesterday with regard to changing our cash. I asked him whether he thought we should just change as little as we think we'll need and leave the rest here in the hope that the rate may make a recovery in the next 6 months or so. He said that it was impossible to say what would happen of course but that the trend at the moment is down. He said that he thought it still had some way to go before starting to inch back up again. 'Then again', he said, 'we may see a recovery up into the 2.70's or 2.80's in the next 6 months to a year but I couldn't really say.' Thanks for the help then!! It was invaluable. 'One thing I do recommend' he continues, 'once you've decided to change it don't look at the exchange rate again.' Thanks again then! More invaluable advice!

He did say it depended what we were thinking of doing. If we want to buy a house straight away then we need to know how much money we're playing with. We do want to buy a house but aren't in a rush until we know where we're staying etc so that'll be a while I should think and hopefully by then, the forever speculated about 'house market crash' will have happened!

So still undecided yet. We have about £35000 in premium bonds here that we think we might leave. What do you think?

[macfod]

Difficult one Dawn...
HIFX cant and will not advise and have a huge fence to sit on!
We bought last May at $3.02 then when we bought our house $2.68 in April 07.
Still prices of property is going up and I cant see a drop coming in the housing market...

Sometimes you must bite the bullet and invest now in NZ.
We are thinking about maybe buying another property over here as well as the money on exchange rates would soon be forgotten.
Plus a good savign rate over here...especially as we will get taxed over here on the income from our other UK property...
Quality of life ...first maybe

[MotherBear]

From here .

[kokopeli]

If only we had a crystal ball Dawn....

We've been in NZ for about nine months. We brought some money to live on until we started earning dollars and a bit more when we bought a car. The rest is still in the UK because we decided to rent a house for at least a year before we bought one. There's no doubt that we're worse off in dollars because we decided to wait - the exchange rate has fallen and house prices have gone up. Having said that, waiting was the right thing for us to do at the time.

The falling exchange rate will be less of a worry to me if NZ property prices start falling. There are some signs that this is starting to happen - homes are taking longer to sell and there are definately more "Price Reduced" signs in the property press. The NZ economy is starting to feel the strain and the Government is starting to panic. All the stuff last week by the Reserve Bank tells us that.

Unfortunately, the Kiwi dollar won't fall until interest rates go up in other countries. Again, there is some evidence to suggest that has started to happen, but it's going to take time because there's such a big difference. No other countries will match the NZ rate in one go - their rates will creep up at 0.25% or maybe 0.5% a month.

FWIW, we're not in a rush, so we're happy to wait and see what happens. Our target rate is 3.00 - but anything could happen if we find that dream house.....

[Dawn]

It is difficult isn't it? It's not as if we have a fortune so we really have to be careful. Wondering whether the best thing is to just go for it!

[ExPat]

The US Federal Reserve meets later this week. If the US Fed decides to raise rates, it will likely send all other currencies down (i.e. the Kiwi will fall against the dollar and perhaps the British Pound).

If the Fed doesn't raise rates, all other currencies will appreciate (Kiwi included).

In the short term, New Zealand will announce their trade balance report on the 26th so that will give you a bit on indication on where it's heading.

Fundamental Analysis - FXstreet.com

UK releases M4 supply on the 29th
Economic Calendar

[kokopeli]

Wondering whether the best thing is to just go for it!

I'd love to tell you to wait Dawn, but you'd be cheesed off if the exchange rate soars to 2.99.... Then again, you'd be happy if it dropped to 2.50 ....

Could you could follow the advice from the chap at HIFX and not check the rates once you'd exchanged? I check 'em every day. It's becoming a bad habit....

[Dawn]

If we do decide to change the lot we'd have to make ourselves not look again wouldn't we. What would be the point? If we're gonna do it we've just got to do it and then get on with it.

Whatever we decide we've got to decide soon. Only 3 weeks to go now!!!

[MotherBear]

NZ dollar tops US77c for first time
9:20AM Friday June 29, 2007

For the first time since being floated 22 years ago, the New Zealand dollar has topped US77c against the greenback.

The kiwi moved through the level early today, peaking around 5am at US77.11c then easing to be around US76.90c by 8am.

Despite all the recent interventions by the Reserve Bank to cool the dollar down, the rampant trade in our currency has continued unabated. It was the third time this week the kiwi hit a post-float high.

The ANZ bank today said buyers had emerged to take advantage of a short-lived unwind in the carry trade - in which investors borrow low interest currencies to invest in higher yielding assets.

And the kiwi could climb even higher.

A strong first quarter GDP figure today could well see the kiwi attempt another new high, ANZ said.

The NZ dollar showed a similar pattern against the euro, climbing from around 0.5630 early yesterday to a near 17-month high of 0.5730 today.

Similarly with the yen, the kiwi climbed from its lowest level in 1-1/2 weeks around 92.60 early yesterday to peak at 94.87.

The pattern against the Australian dollar was somewhat different, with the kiwi having generally trended upwards against its trans-Tasman counterpart for the past three weeks.

It peeked above A91c at mid-morning yesterday for the first time since February 2006 and made a few other brief forays above that level since, the latest around 3am.

By 8am the NZ dollar was buying around A90.90c, barely changed from its level at 5pm yesterday.

The trade weighted index was at 74.79 at 8am today from 74.40 at 5pm yesterday, having also hit a post-float high early today, of 74.86.

The main data yesterday was a first quarter current account improvement to 8.5 per cent of gross domestic product, from 9 per cent of GDP in the December quarter.

That matched Reserve Bank expectations, but the figure remained one of the worst of any March quarters in the past decade.

Also out yesterday was the monthly National Bank Business Outlook, which showed a net 37 per cent of respondents expect conditions to deteriorate, down from May's reading of 48 per cent.

Firms' own activity expectations also rebounded, with a net 15 per cent expecting an improvement against 8 per cent last month.
- NZPA

From here .