Weather Bomb hits NZ

Wild winter on its way out
30 August 2006

Winter is officially on its way out next week, and not a moment too soon for many New Zealanders. We've shivered through record snows in Canterbury, waded through floods in Coromandel, Otago and Wairarapa, been battered by gale force winds in Auckland, Taranaki and Waikato and dodged land slips in Wellington, Hawke's Bay and nearly everywhere else.

The wild weather kicked off early with heavy rain drenching parts of Otago in late April. Rivers broke their banks, roads and bridges were washed out, and motorists were stranded in their cars overnight.

In early May, more rain caused land slips which closed the Napier-Gisborne and Napier-Taupo roads. But the outlook seemed to be clearing on June 6, when the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said it was likely to be a mild winter. Instead, it would be the coldest June since 1972, with an average temperature of 7.3degC. In Canterbury and North Otago the mercury dropped to -10degC on nine days.

On June 12, Cantabrians woke up to the deepest snowfall they'd had since 1945, cutting power to more than 10,000 homes – some of them for up to 18 days. And on June 22, another heavy dumping of snow across the central North Island closed all but one significant

July provided some respite from the plummeting temperatures – it was 0.8degC warmer than June – but freezing cold snows were replaced with torrential downpours in many areas. Rainfall was twice normal levels in Wairarapa, and 1½ times normal in Wellington, Wanganui and King Country, causing widespread disruptions.

Slips blocked a crucial route between Hutt Valley and Wellington on July 5, and four houses were evacuated when the Ruamahanga River in South Wairarapa threatened to burst its banks.

On July 9 Mangamahu, a small town north of Wanganui, was cut off completely when a bridge over the Mangawhero River collapsed after heavy rains. Not everybody bore the full force of the weather. Auckland, Hamilton and Dunedin all basked in the sunniest June on record. Auckland also had half its normal levels of rainfall in July, as did Coromandel and Central Otago. Northland and North Otago had a mere quarter of their normal levels.

Niwa scientists are quick to point out that they never said it was certain to be a mild winter. It may sound a bit like playing with words but what we said was it was likely to be mild,' says Dr David Wratt of Niwa's National Climate Centre in Wellington.

The Climate Centre uses computer models to simulate the global weather system. They run a number of different models several times, making small changes to each run, and average out the results to come up with the weather odds.

This winter they ran about nine models, says Dr Wratt, between 10 and 15 times each. Based on the results from these, they found there was a 50 per cent chance of a mild winter. 'But we also saw. . . there was a 30 per cent chance of it getting very wet. So what actually happened was we got hit by the 30 per cent rather than the 50,' he says. 'It makes our lives a bit miserable to tell you the truth, because we know the simple summaries we have to put out as press releases, some of the time will be wrong. And people will come back and criticise us. I won't say it's like being a politician, but there are certain jobs where it goes with the territory.'

Dr Wratt says in fact it wasn't an exceptionally bad winter overall – no matter how atrocious the weather might have seemed. 'There were certainly some places where the weather was very unusual, but not necessarily for the country as a whole.'

But Insurance Council chief executive Chris Ryan says it was one of the most financially damaging winters New Zealand has seen in decades. 'The insurance payouts would conservatively be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. . . It's been very long, very wet and very destructive.'

He says one of the biggest concerns for the Insurance Council is the number of people who don't have insurance – up to a third of some small communities. 'We've seen a higher expectation from people that the government will help them out, and of course the government can't afford to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars when there's a flood.

According to Dr Jim Renwick, Dr Wratt's colleague at the National Climate Centre, people may have been caught off guard by this winter's severity because it bucked a warming trend. 'Over the last ten years or so we've had a predominance of warm winters. Maybe this winter has seemed that much colder because we've got un-used to having cold winters.'

So, is climate change what's behind the milder winters?

Yes – New Zealand is 0.7degC warmer than it was 100 years ago, says Dr Wratt. But it's not clear yet whether climate change is linked to extreme weather in general.

'Some people say with climate change there are going to be more unpredictable swings from one extreme to the other. (But) we certainly wouldn't try to claim the extra snow through this winter is anything to do with climate change. Basically what we get is a combination of the natural variability that we've always had, with climate change going on underneath so perhaps we don't get so many cold winters.'

August wet but sunny with normal temperatures
01 September 2006

August was a wet month – with several regions recording double their normal rainfall – but it was also sunny, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said today.

Rainfall was almost 200 per cent of normal in parts of Wanganui, Kapiti, Wellington, Wairarapa and in Christchurch and it was also above normal in coastal Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Manawatu and Wairarapa, Niwa said in its National Climate summary.

In total contrast, the Kaikoura coast received half its normal level of rainfall and below normal rainfall was recorded in Hawke's Bay, Buller, much of Westland and Nelson, South Canterbury and North and Central Otago.

The mean temperature was near average throughout much of New Zealand. The national average was 8.8degC, just 0.1degC above average.

The highest temperature in August was 21.8degC at Timaru airport on August 29. This was the third-highest August temperature since records started in 1962. The lowest air temperature was -9degC, recorded at Alexandra on August 10. This was the lowest since records started there in 1929.

Snowfall occurred in Otago, in the inland areas of Southland and Canterbury and on the Desert Rd.

'Dunedin was by far the driest, Wellington the wettest, and Christchurch the coldest but sunniest of the main centres,' Niwa said. The month was sunnier than normal over much of New Zealand, especially in Otago and Southland.

Sunshine hours were at least 120 per cent of normal in Otago, Southland, Gisborne and Wellington, and at least 110 per cent of normal in Northland, Hawke's Bay, Taranaki, Manawatu, Kapiti, Nelson, Westland and Canterbury.

- NZPA

After a terrible winter, looks like Spring is going to treat all well...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3786416a11,00.html

"Winter never fail to turn into Spring"

Pulsarblu

August wet but plenty of sun
Monday September 4, 2006

August was a wet month - with several regions recording double their normal rainfall - but it was also sunny, says the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. Rainfall was almost 200 per cent above normal in parts of Wanganui, Kapiti, Wellington, Wairarapa and in Christchurch.

It was also above normal in coastal Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Manawatu and Wairarapa, Niwa said in its National Climate summary. In contrast, the Kaikoura coast received half its normal level of rainfall and below normal rainfall was recorded in Hawkes Bay, Buller, much of Westland and Nelson, South Canterbury and North and Central Otago.

The mean temperature was near average throughout much of New Zealand. The national average was 8.8C, just 0.1C above average. The highest temperature last month was 21.8C at Timaru Airport on August 29. This was the third-highest August temperature since records started in 1962. The lowest air temperature was -9C, recorded at Alexandra on August 10, the lowest since records started there in 1929.

Snowfall occurred in Otago, in the inland areas of Southland and Canterbury and on the Desert Rd. "Dunedin was by far the driest, Wellington the wettest and Christchurch the coldest but sunniest of the main centres," Niwa said.

The month was sunnier than normal over much of New Zealand, especially in Otago and Southland. Sunshine hours were at least 120 per cent of normal in Otago, Southland, Gisborne and Wellington, and at least 110 per cent of normal in Northland, Hawkes Bay, Taranaki, Manawatu, Kapiti, Nelson, Westland and Canterbury.

- NZPA

After a terrible winter, looks like Spring is going to treat all well...

"Winter never fail to turn into Spring"

Pulsarblu

Try telling that to those people in the SI! Brrrr....

Chilling winds to freeze the south
3.20pm Saturday September 16, 2006

Residents of Southland and south Otago have been warned to brace themselves for a chilly change in the weather today.

MetService meteorologists are warning that the conditions are likely to be very stressful for stock, especially any lambs born tonight or on Sunday.

Spokesman Bob McDavitt said a deep low passing to the south of New Zealand was dragging air from Antarctica on to the south coast.

"By Saturday night brief snow showers are expected to develop about higher parts of Southland and in the Catlins area, and may also affect some of the mountain roads such as the Milford road and Arthurs Pass road," he said.

"Anyone working outdoors or travelling about the south coast will need to brace for the chill in the gales that follow the cold front," Mr McDavitt said.

"The wind will literally blow heat from your body so that it will feel as though it's freezing."

The chilly weather is not expected to ease significantly until Monday morning.

- NZPA

It is weather after all. It is a un-predictable science. :P

At least I can feel that Wellington is coming closer to spring if no one disagree..haha

Well, spring is definitely here!

The temperatures around most areas of NZ were in the late teens, early twenties today - Napier and Gisborne at 23 degrees. OK, the winter was colder than normal but it sure is nice to know that spring really means warm weather, something that we may have to wait until late April/early May for in the UK.

Windy but warm.



Gales to hit Wellington and East Coast
21 September 2006

A widespread bout of strong north-westerly winds will hit the East Coast and Wellington on Saturday and Monday, bringing heavy rain to the Southern Alps.

MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt described the winds as "equinoctial gales", caused by the contrast between extreme cold in Antarctica and emerging tropical weather heading southward.

"It feeds off the difference in temperature between the tropics and Antarctica, so it's no surprise they're strong and widespread at the moment."

As a result, Otago and Canterbury will be hot, dry, and gusty over the next few days, adding to the risk of fire.

Sounds like something you'd hear in the UK. ::)

Ahh, summer… enjoy it while it lasts
Tuesday September 26, 2006
By Anne Beston and Derek Cheng

With almost perfect timing, much of the country basked in warm, sunny weather for the first day of the school holidays yesterday - and with luck, the fine spell could hang around for at least another day.

A high pressure system is parked over the North Island, keeping at bay a front which is moving up from the South Island. That should mean mostly sunshine and blue skies at some of the country's favourite holiday spots in Northland, Coromandel, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Taupo today.

"After the cold, cold winter we've had it's nice to see some summery weather around although, dare I say it, in Wellington it's been dull and windy," said MetService forecaster Peter Little. The lower South Island out-shone everyone yesterday, tipping the mercury at a sizzling 25C.

While Auckland and Kaitaia could reach only 20C and 22C respectively, Dunedin and Alexandra were the hottest spots on the map thanks to a blustery northwest wind blowing in from the Tasman sea which pushed hot air over the lower South Island. Much of the North Island was covered in sunny, blue skies and warm temperatures. But Wellington, Taranaki and Manawatu missed out on the good weather with cloud and blustery winds.

Readings of ozone in the atmosphere showed that the layer of thin ozone - which had brought summertime UV levels to the country at the weekend - had moved on. But the bad news is, the good weather won't last.

A cold front lying across the South Island will move north, bringing cloud and drizzle down south in the morning but clearing in the afternoon. Things will deteriorate in the North Island from tomorrow with cloud, rain and drizzle forecast from Auckland to Taranaki. And by Thursday, rain or drizzle and cloud will spread over much of the North Island.

Climate scientists believe a moderate El Nino weather pattern has developed over the Pacific which should bring lower rainfall and dry summer winds to New Zealand, especially in eastern parts.

An El Nino also means more southwesterlies over the South Island and average temperatures for summer over the country as a whole. The Pacific Islands face an increased risk of tropical cyclones.

Sea temperatures have been warmer than normal around the Equator and the South American coast this month - classic signs of an El Nino.

Wild weather with more to come
UPDATED 8.25am Monday October 2, 2006
By James Ihaka, Elizabeth Binning and Lee Rowberry

Storm clouds over Auckland


The MetService is warning more wild weather could hit northern regions today after a mini tornado yesterday which swept through West Auckland damaging roofs, uprooting trees and causing widespread flooding. A heavy rain warning was issued last night, with thunderstorms and up to 100mm of rain expected to fall in Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula by this afternoon.

Yesterday's tornado struck in Martin Jugum Lane about 3.30pm, heralding a severe electric storm that caused flooding, landslips and damage throughout West Auckland, the North Shore and central city.

Firefighters have now been called to around 200 incidents since yesterday afternoon. The AA is warning this morning that surface flooding is particularly deep at the end of the North-Western Motorway at Westgate where State Highways 16 and 18 meet.

Further north, police says there are still concerns about flooding on the Kaipara Coast Highway. International and domestic flights were also affected at Auckland airport.

Ranui resident Cathy Andrews had been chatting to a friend in Australia on the internet when she heard a "tremendous crashing noise". "I looked out the window and everything was flying everywhere - there were trees, fencing and tiles just flying all over the place," she said. "I ran through the house shouting 'Tornado! Tornado!' There was this absolute roar and it's something you wouldn't want to live through again."

Further down the road Isaac Cheriyam felt his house bear the full brunt of the tornado. "I was just watching TV when we heard this incredible noise," he said. "The house then started rattling and the thunder and lightning came at the same time - I could hear it coming towards our house from the other side of the street." Mr Cheriyam said the tornado petered out after it went past his home - throwing tiles on to his front lawn, denting his garage door and piling his outdoor dining set on top of itself.

The tornado left a trail of damage at least 100m long. Large sections of fences had been ripped out of the ground and flown up to 40m through the air. Housing insulation was hanging from the inside of homes, roofing tiles were scattered throughout properties and outdoor furniture was thrown about like toys. While firefighters tried to repair the damaged roofs using tiles and salvage sheets, the Northern Communications Centre received the first of more than 100 calls that came in during the worst of the storm.

In West Auckland swollen streams flooded houses, basements and buildings, while arcing powerlines caused small fires. Heavy winds uprooted trees and sent one iron roof flying into a neighbouring property.

Rain fell at up to 50mm an hour in some parts of the city. The wild electrical storm above the airport meant delays for both international and national flights, said airport communications adviser Carolyn Gibson.

In Henderson Valley Rd, Kelly Jamieson and partner Neil were so concerned about the flooding they drove their son to his grandmother's home. "It just came up really quick from out the back creek. Suddenly all of Neil's tools were floating in the garage," Ms Jamieson said.

In Opanuku Rd firefighters helped the Collins family move property to higher ground. The firefighters then put a pole in the floodwaters and told the family to evacuate if the water rose above a certain level.

As the storm moved across the city firefighters began getting calls for help in the central city and North Shore - where 30mm of rain fell between 4pm and 5pm at Birkenhead Pt. In the city a foodcourt in lower Queen St flooded and people were evacuated from the Civic Theatre after sewage flooded its lower level.

Fire Service Northern Communications Centre shift manager Jaron Phillips said firefighters had attended 126 emergency calls between 3pm and 8.30pm, most of which were about flooding.

A handful of car accidents were probably related to the weather. Parts of the Northern Motorway and State Highway 17 around Dairy Flat and Albany were closed by flooding at one stage last night. The motorway was closed northbound from the Esmonde Rd exit. Mr Phillips said the Fire Service worked under its Multiple Incidents Procedures into the evening.

- NEWSTALK ZB, NZPA