Election

[skunkgirl]

If Labour are ousted from power on Saturday at the election - who are their strongest competitors? Just trying to look at their policies for immigration and how it may affect everyone trying to get to NZ

[SteveyC]

Isn't it Don Brashes Nationalist party? Don't think they'll get voted out tho, the media always hype up right wing opposition above the actual threat.
Could be wrong tho.

[MotherBear]

[color=red:19979b5742]From today's New Zealand Herald[/color:19979b5742]

Brash now election betting favourite

15.09.05 3.00pm

Two days out from Saturday's general election, National Party leader Don Brash has become favourite to win, according to online bookmaker Centrebet.

Centrebet's prime minister odds favour Dr Brash for the first time since July 26. He has been Centrebet's PM underdog for all bar one day of the official campaign to date.

But this week punters have wagered more than $150,000 on Dr Brash to lift him to favouritism.

Labour's outlook is so bleak that some punters are changing horses and accepting losses.

"You know that you're in trouble when punters who backed your party at short odds several weeks ago switch sides and lock in an election betting loss," said Centrebet's Gerard Daffy.

Austalia-based Centrebet specialises in election betting and it claims that its odds are more accurate than polls.

Stanford University researcher Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh, of Harvard, found that Centrebet's odds on the 2001 Australian federal election not only forecast the overall result correctly but also provided precise estimates of outcomes in more than 40 electorates.

Dr Brash is paying $1.80 to win, while Labour leader Helen Clark is at $1.90.

[color=red:19979b5742]Personally I think, regardless of who gets in, there will be changes in some form or other to the immigration laws, as it was previously reported that Helen Clark was looking into overhauling the system.[/color:19979b5742]

[SteveyC]

Hmmm not sure whether that's good news or bad. He's very patriotic yes but, arguably he might love us brits still depends on his views on the commonwealth etc I guess. Think the Maoris might be in for a bit of hard time tho. :icon_eek: icon_exclaim.gif

[MotherBear]

[color=red:bfc0775dd7]NZ Herald today[/color:bfc0775dd7]

[b:bfc0775dd7][size=18:bfc0775dd7]Brash nervous, Clark optimistic [/size:bfc0775dd7][/b:bfc0775dd7]

16.09.05
By Ruth Berry and Julie Middleton

Helen Clark is "very optimistic" about the election but dislikes using the word confident. Don Brash says the race is so close he's taking nothing for granted. The pair spent most of their day yesterday preparing for the TVNZ leaders' debate last night - but chose quite different venues to try to pick up any available votes.

Dr Brash held a "public meeting" at the Royal Akarana Yacht Club, but it was attended by about 100 people who were apparently all National Party supporters and there were no questions. They didn't seem to have any left to ask - they knew their man, they loved him and they could already see him sitting in the country's top job.

"We are just 48 hours away from D-day," he told them, "48 hours away from deciding who will govern this country for the next three years. It's a very critical choice for all New Zealanders." It would determine whether this was the place "where our children and grandchildren want to be or whether we will continue to see an exodus ... across the Tasman and to other countries abroad."

"Helen Clark said she wanted to make this election campaign about trust and integrity ... and I was delighted about that," he continued, going on to list the number of instances where she had lacked both. That included the student loan costings, which the Ombudsman forced Labour to release on Wednesday that he called the "granddaddy of them all".

Afterwards Dr Brash said he wasn't taking anything for granted. "The polls suggest in the last few days it could go either way ... we are working very hard right down to the wire." He admitted to a little nervousness at the prospect of being Prime Minister. "I think if someone facing the prospect of being Prime Minister for the first time isn't nervous, then they don't fully understand the importance of the job."

Helen Clark meanwhile went to the Auckland University campus with a bevy of Labour MPs and in contrast to previous campus visits in recent days she was loudly cheered. The noisy, proudly pro-Labour crowd was sprinkled with Green and National supporters, all of them warmed up by a slick three-piece funk group. The posters waving above the crowd ranged from "Three more years" to "We Love You Helen" and "Don't Wake Up with Brash". There were hecklers and several unpleasant signs including one which said: "Either way there will be a man in charge".

Helen Clark focused on Labour's "inclusiveness" and its desire for the "rising tide to lift every boat". "This election is about the future of the country we want to live in ... not what's in it for me," she said in a clear reference to tax cuts. "I believe when that hand goes over the ballot paper people will be thinking, 'What's best for my country?"'

She emphasised the need for strong leadership and hammered Dr Brash on his lack of credibility, citing his actions at Te Wananga o Aotearoa this week as "the most disgraceful example of forked tongue behaviour I've seen in the whole campaign". She said New Zealanders did not want a single party government and that had been the fundamental flaw in National's campaign. Asked if she was confident of a win she said: "I've never used the word confidence because I think it's arrogant". "I've always used the word optimistic."

Speculation on this election is pointless. I've been following a lot of the political goings on and no one knows whats going on. You watch the news with the polls, and Labour are ahead... then, on the next news update an hour later, National are leading the polls.. then, an hour later, its Labour in the lead.. thats in between it being 'neck-a-neck' of course. Also, if you change channel to watch another news programme, its the opposite of that.

I'm pretty sure these polls are conducted in a bar somewhere between 3 men drinking. As they drink, they phone the news studios for a laugh. The poll question consisting of 'whadda ya rekon, mate?'

Thought it was funny on an election debate, Dr. Brash was referred to as being a political 'Spongebob Squarepants'. Can't wait until Saturday's election!

[selchie]

But I like Spongebob!

I hope that the voting public doesn't watch the bookmakers as their guide for whom to vote. It's sad that some people just want to vote for the winner, and not for whom they think will lead well.

Maybe we should have delayed our application until after the election. I'm not sure if I want to move into another den of ultra-conservatism.

[MotherBear]

Would be nice if someone down there could keep us informed as to how the election is going as you will, no doubt, have up-to-the-minute info.

The polls dont close till 7pm I think, so wont know whats happening until then... TV programme on giving all the coverage from 7pm-11pm tonight :icon_eek: icon_exclaim.gif

[themcclarences]

The following is apparently where all the results are fed in as they come through-
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
For anyone as sad as me, who wants to keep an eye on whats happening!
Can't see anything about exit poll results though so if anyone can let us know what they were that would be good.
Cheers
Sian