Hold on, Dawn! Fingers crossed. 
'Sharp fall' in kiwi likely, says analyst
5:00AM Thursday April 26, 2007
By Hiroko Komiya
Global currency strategists are divided over whether New Zealand's uridashi boom can continue.
The kiwi dollar is "massively overvalued" and will fall 7 per cent against the yen in six months, says Stephen Koukoulas, chief Asia-Pacific strategist at TD Securities.
The "super strong New Zealand dollar is unlikely to rise further and appears to be near the point where a sharp fall is likely", he said on Tuesday.
High interest rates have been a lure for carry trades, where investors borrow at low interest rates in countries such as Japan, currently 0.5 per cent, and invest the funds elsewhere.
New Zealand's dollar has risen 5.2 per cent to 88.18 this year and 5.7 per cent against its US counterpart to post-float highs of more than US74c.
If Japanese investors redeeming uridashi bonds converted the proceeds into yen the decline in the dollar would be even sharper, Koukoulas said. Uridashi securities are foreign currency-denominated debt.
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